The 2025 Japanese Grand Prix offered some valuable insights into the current pecking order of Formula 1 teams, particularly in terms of raw race pace.
According to the data analysis from Formula Data Analysis and F1Pace by F1ByThe Numbers, both Max Verstappen and Lando Norris had the fastest cars on track, with their lap times averaging out identically—highlighting just how closely matched their cars were in terms of outright speed.
Key Insights:
- McLaren (Norris) and Red Bull (Verstappen): Both had identical average lap times, showcasing a very close battle for the fastest car. Norris, however, was unable to enter Verstappen’s DRS zone for most of the race, limiting his ability to challenge for the lead despite the McLaren being faster overall. This is likely due to the McLaren’s struggles with dirty air when following another car too closely.
- Oscar Piastri: Piastri was only 0.03 seconds per lap slower than Verstappen and Norris on average. Interestingly, he was quicker than both towards the end of the race, suggesting that McLaren’s car had strong race pace, though it wasn’t utilized to challenge Verstappen for the win. It raises the question of whether McLaren could have given Piastri the chance to overtake Verstappen.
- Mercedes (Antonelli): Mercedes’ pace was also impressive, with Antonelli showing remarkable speed, especially towards the end of the race. While Mercedes was behind McLaren and Red Bull in raw lap time, Antonelli’s performance suggests that the W16 could be the second-fastest car overall, particularly if given clean air.
- Ferrari’s Struggles: Ferrari’s Leclerc displayed an impressive performance, considering the team’s struggles with race pace. The data indicates that Ferrari is still off the pace compared to the top teams like Red Bull and McLaren, which will be a point of concern as the season progresses.
- Ollie Bearman’s Performance: Despite being in the eighth-fastest car, Ollie Bearman impressed with his ability to fight against Alonso’s Aston Martin and Gasly’s Alpine, showcasing great potential against more experienced drivers.
- Tight Battle for P10: The battle for P10 was particularly close, with the three cars separated by just 0.03 seconds per lap—a great example of how even the midfield in Formula 1 can be incredibly competitive.
While Verstappen and Norris had the fastest cars, the race highlighted the influence of factors like dirty air and tyre management, which can impact how a car performs over a race distance. McLaren’s MCL39 is the quickest car in terms of raw pace, but Red Bull’s ability to manage clean air and Verstappen’s consistency helped secure the win. Teams like Mercedes and McLaren will likely be reflecting on what might have been, as the performance of Piastri and Antonelli suggests that these teams could potentially challenge Red Bull more effectively in the future.