New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints: Predictions, picks and odds for NFL Week 6 game

The New England Patriots head into Week 6 riding a wave of momentum after a dramatic 23–20 road win over the Buffalo Bills.

That victory not only bolstered their confidence but also opened eyes around the league about rookie quarterback Drake Maye and New England’s resurgence. Across town, the New Orleans Saints are trying to build on a morale-boosting 26–14 win over the Giants— their first under new head coach Kellen Moore. Matching up in the Superdome, this game offers intriguing angles, matchup edges, and betting value for bettors and fans alike.

Odds & Betting Lines

The betting market currently favors New England by –3.5 points. The moneyline paints the Patriots as moderate favorites, with quotes around –200 (New England) versus +168 (Saints) in some books. The over/under (total points) generally sits in the 45.5 to 46 range.

DunkelIndex’s model is more conservative, projecting a Saints +3.5 (ATS) outcome with a low‑scoring 21–20 final. ([dunkelindex.com][3]) On the flip side, more bullish outlooks (e.g. FanDuel’s research) give the Patriots about 62.2% win probability and expect them to cover the spread. ([FanDuel][2]) Dimers’ simulation after 10,000 runs predicts **Patriots 23, Saints 19** and gives New England a 63% win chance. Stats Insider leans toward New England winning 24–21.

Matchup & Key Factors

Quarterback & Offense

Drake Maye has quietly been efficient, posting completion percentages near 73.9% and limiting turnovers. Meanwhile, Saints QB Spencer Rattler has taken a more conservative approach, tilting toward short, controlled passes.  The Patriots have also maintained one of the stronger run defenses in the league, allowing under ~ 85 rushing yards per game, which could stifle New Orleans’ ground game. However, New England’s offensive line has faced pressure issues (e.g. sack totals, pass protection concerns), which the Saints may try to exploit.

Defense & Turnovers

New Orleans ranks as opportunistic on defense; their turnover differential is among the better marks so far. The Saints front seven—if healthy—can disrupt timing in Maye’s rhythm. But injuries on their line and concerns about pass rush consistency temper that edge. On the other side, the Patriots defense has shown resilience against the run and has bent but not broken in some matchups.

Trends & Psychology

New England is aiming for its first three‑game win streak since 2022. They also historically have had success in New Orleans: Patriots lead the all-time series and hold a strong road record at the Superdome.The Saints, though buoyed by their recent win, still operate from a lower confidence level, with roster and consistency questions.

Predictions & Picks

Straight up (Moneyline): Patriots

ATS (Spread): Lean Patriots –3.5

Total (Over/Under): Lean **Over 45.5, expecting a modest shootout

Projected Score: Patriots 24, Saints 20

I anticipate New England’s combination of offensive balance, discipline under Maye, and defensive steadiness to eke out a close victory. While the Saints have flashes and home-field edge, I’m skeptical they sustain enough consistency to cover the 3.5‑point margin.