Five Crucial Stats That Could Shape the Outcome of the Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals

The 2025 NBA Finals matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers is not only a clash of two dynamic, up-and-coming teams but also a chess match of styles and strengths. As both franchises seek their first championship in decades, a handful of key statistics may ultimately determine who lifts the trophy. Here are five crucial numbers to watch throughout the series:

Both teams rely heavily on their ability to score close to the basket. The Thunder, led by Chet Holmgren’s rim presence and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s relentless drives, average over 52 points in the paint per game. Indiana’s Myles Turner, a premier shot-blocker, anchors their defense. Whichever team wins the interior battle could dictate the flow of each game.         The Pacers thrive in transition, with Tyrese Haliburton orchestrating fast breaks off defensive stops. Indiana forces an average of 14 turnovers per game and turns them into easy offense. Oklahoma City, however, ranks among the league’s best in protecting the ball. If the Thunder maintain that composure, they can neutralize a core strength of Indiana’s attack.

Both squads are capable from deep, but consistency has varied. The Thunder shoot 37.5% from three, with key contributions from Jalen Williams and Isaiah Joe. The Pacers, while streaky, can get hot quickly with Buddy Hield and Haliburton spacing the floor. A hot shooting night could swing momentum in what’s expected to be a tightly contested series.

Depth may quietly play a huge role. Indiana’s second unit, featuring Bennedict Mathurin and Obi Toppin, has shown the ability to change games with energy and scoring bursts. The Thunder bench is younger and less experienced, but players like Cason Wallace have stepped up in critical moments. The battle of benches could decide games when starters rest.

Both teams have shown poise in late-game scenarios. Oklahoma City boasts a 24–7 record in games decided by five points or fewer, largely due to Gilgeous-Alexander’s calm under pressure. Indiana, on the other hand, has thrived in the fourth quarter with balanced scoring. In a series likely filled with close finishes, execution in the final minutes could be the deciding factor.

As the Finals tip off, keep an eye on these five stats — they may reveal which team is best positioned to capture the crown. Davesportscomplex.com.